Lecturer
Professor Peter McDonald, Director, Australian Demography & Social Research Institute, Australian National University, and President of International Union for the Scientific Study of Poulation.
Summary
Gross Domestic Product per Capita is a frequently used measure of living standards across countries. GDP per capita can be decomposed into three components, the three Ps of population, productivity and participation (labour force participation). Using the software package, MoDEM, the paper examines the extent to which demographic factors will affect GDP per capita over a 40-year period. The paper considers the potential for alternative demographic pathways to affect GDP per capita and examines the relative impacts of demographic factors compared with potential changes in labour force participation or labour productivity. The outcomes are examined for the short-term (to 2020) when many countries will be affected by the retirement of their baby-boom generation and for the long term (to 2050).
